Prediction markets in the news are a dangerous gamble

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Participants were given brief instructions followed by a comprehension check to ensure they understood the task goal. They were then introduced to the chatbot interface. They then began the rule discovery task, which proceeded in three rounds within the chatbot interface. Each round started with a three-digit sequence. Participants then (1) stated their hypothesis about the rule and (2) rated how likely they believed their rule was correct on a 0-100 scale (0 = Certainly Incorrect, 100 = Certainly Correct) before proceeding to the next round where they received a new sequence from the AI agent. The first sequence was 2-4-6 for every participant.

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